佳句摘要
– Nemo : Bill Gross mentioned about three books in the article, Investing for Mummies, The Intelligent Investor, and The Big Short.
– Experience is a great teacher, but the foundation of civilization, and too investing, is also dependent upon the capsulization of the experiences of others and that is where books have played a formative part in my own career.
– Common sense can not be taught. CQ – Common Sense Quotient – in addition to an IQ in order to succeed in investing.
– Not so with investing, because prices are a delicate combination of mathematical value and human nature – something that quantitative scholars and practitioners rejected to their eventual ruin in their pursuit of “efficient market”.
– If a chef were to concoct a gourmet investment recipe, he would likely blend a teaspoon of intelligence with a tablespoon of common sense, but the same proportions would probably not apply in other professions.
– Whatever the future holds, remember that a tablespoon is larger than a teaspoon, and that CA beats IQ most of the time in the investment world. “Two plus two equals four” needs a lots of CQ, but requires only a second grader’s IQ.
– Their quantitative models appeared to have a Mensa-like IQ of at least 160, but their common sense rating was closer to 60, resembling an idiot savant with a full command of the mathematics, but no idea of how to apply them. (Nemo : after discussion the poor credit valuation of subprime crisis and Greece from famous rating service firms such as Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.)
– No one or no one company has a monopoly on investment or ratings expertise. Second grade intelligence and a high CQ are a rare combination for an individual rating agency or an investment management firms as well.
尼莫心得
– 好的價值投資人應有持續學習和閱讀的習慣。文中葛洛斯提到三本經典的書，也提到閱讀對他的重大影響(where books have played a formative part in my own career)。看過巴老的滾雪球的人也應該都知道巴老花很多時間閱讀和思考。SO請認真想想，跟他們相比，我們花在閱讀和思考的時間是否足夠？是否有持續學習和進步的習慣？如果沒有，憑什麼能夠靠投資致富？
– 提到以及不斷強調Common Sense的重要性遠勝於IQ。有位一直以來尼莫很崇敬的一位銀行家，根據別人對他的描述，他連大學都唸不畢業，但能夠達到今天的成就，主要就是有足夠的Common Sense。對尼莫而言，Common Sense已涉及智慧的階層，一點都不簡單。
– 對效率市場假說的批判。好像每位價值投資派的大師都對效率資本市場假說嗤之以鼻，關於這點，也許昨天的美股盤中大跌近千點是是最好的證明。市場真的有效率嗎？
– 對傻瓜信評的批判。這點應該從兩年前次貸風暴起，世人就看透了，這些信評單位做的RATING根本就是屁，只會用事後諸葛的方式來調整信評，這樣叫三歲小孩來都會做，而信評最重要的價值＂預警功能＂卻一點都沒做到。關於這點，as a lending banker，尼莫覺得重要的是不要人云亦云，凡事依賴別人的判斷來做決斷，這樣等於把命運交在別人手上，重要的是要靠自己獨立蒐集資料後思考判斷出的評價。由此延伸，能夠獨排眾議，敢於和別人不同且持續堅持自己的看法，不合群且有點孤僻，有異於常人的自信心甚至傲氣，似乎是價值投資者的最適性格。真的是如此嗎？
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